ROACHBLOG

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Tuesday, May 11, 2004
 
A Kerry Landslide?

Well that depends on your definition of landslide. Chuck Todd writes of an intriguing possibility:
2004 could be a decisive victory for Kerry. The reason to think so is historical. Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent--and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators beyond the neck-and-neck support for the two candidates in the polls--such as high turnout in the early Democratic primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November--it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it's going to be Kerry in a rout.


I would like to think that this is a real possibility. The idea that Kerry could win nationally by 10 percentage points is not out of my personal realm of belief. However, the combination of the infamous electoral college with the fact that red states have become "redder" and blue states "bluer" I doubt that even a huge Kerry victory in the popular vote will translate to a big win in the electoral college.

The possibility that Kerry could win the large blue states (CA, IL and NY) by 10 - 15 points but only lose the large red states (TX and FL) by 1 -5 points creates the possibility that Bush could once again win the electoral college even though he would loses the popular vote by *several million* ballots. In 2000, Al Gore's margin of victory in the popular vote was approximately +550,000 votes.

This year the actual election will only be fought in 12, or so, states that are still up for grabs. This fact alone makes it unlikely that either candidate will run away with the electoral college.
 
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“There’s a lot of money to pay for this that doesn’t have to be U.S. taxpayer money, and it starts with the assets of the Iraqi people…and on a rough recollection, the oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years…We’re dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon.” -Paul Wolfowitz

Cost of the War in Iraq
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